BANCI | ENGLISH

Erste Group: From export-led recovery to more diversified growth in CEE in 2011

Autor:

2010-07-16 17:15

– CEE consumption to pick up about 1-2.5% y/y in real terms in the region next yearrn- The currently purely export-led economic revival to get more balanced due to increased consumptionrn- Consumption growth in CEE to be less vulnerable in the coming years due to sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratiosrn- CEE region as front-runner in the global competitiveness of labor due to low labor costs and expected labor market reformsrnrnErste Group analysts find that disposable income in CEE will pick up by 1-2.5% y/y, and drive consumption by a similar rate. Furthermore, the low unit labour costs in CEE, and structural changes in the labour market, will ensure that the CEE recovery is multi-faceted. The current export-led economic revival will become more balanced as sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratios aid consumption growth in the coming years.rnrn”Given the strong deceleration of credit growth and reversal of net borrowing over the last two years, there is fundamentally less need for further adjustments in saving ratios in CEE countries”, says Juraj Kotian, Co-Head CEE Macro Research at Erste Group. “Thus, consumption will be strongly tied to the growth of disposable income, which we expect to pick up about 1-2.5% y/y in real terms in the region next year, providing support to GDP growth”. The exception is Romania, where higher inflation (due to the VAT increase) will bring real disposable incomes down 0.8% y/y next year. “We therefore expect the currently purely export-led economic revival to get more balanced. Furthermore, sustainable saving ratios and net borrowing/lending ratios should make consumption growth in CEE less vulnerable in the coming years”.rnThe press release

Taguri:

Comentarii

Nu există comentarii pentru această știre.

Adauga un comentariu

Alte stiri din categoria: ENGLISH

Neutral interest rate in Romania

The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank

Merger of Alpha Bank and UniCredit Bank Romania

Press Release:"Alpha Services and Holdings announces a strategic partnership with UniCredit in RomaniaMerger of Alpha Bank Romania and UniCredit Bank Romania and creation of third largest bank in Romania by... detalii

National Bank of Romania (NBR) Board decisions on monetary policy

NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii

ING posts 2022 net result of €3,674 million, dividend of €0.389 per share

ING press release:ING posts FY2022 net result of €3,674 million,proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share 4Q2022 profit before tax of €1,711 million; CET1 ratio remains strong at 14.5%•Profit before tax up 29% on 4Q2021 and 24% on 3Q2022, mainly driven by higher income•Higher net interest income, as a further increase in liability margins helped offset TLTRO impact this quarter•Risk costs declined to 17 bps of average customer lending Full-year 2022 net result of €3,674 million, supported by growing customer base and increase in lending and deposits•On a full-year basis, our primary customer base grew by 585,000•Net core lending growth of €18 billion and net core deposits growth of €25 billion in 2022•Net result of €3,674 million in a challenging year; proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share CEO statement“Looking back, 2022 was... detalii