In January-July 2010 the balance-of-payments current account posted a deficit of EUR 3,797 million, 38.5 percent higher than in the same period of 2009, due largely to the 32.0 percent decrease year on year in current transfers balance, said Romanian National Bank in a press release.rnrnNon-residents’ direct investment in Romania worth EUR 1,909 million (as compared with EUR 2,975 million over January-July 2009) covered 50.3 percent of the current account deficit in the first seven months of 2010. Over January-July 2010, out of the total figure, equity stakes* amounted to EUR 1,329 million and intra-group loans1 to EUR 580 million. rnrnMedium- and long-term external debt at end-July 2010 stood at EUR 70,499 million (80.5 percent of total external debt), 7.3 percent above the level recorded at end-2009.rnrnShort-term external debt at end-July 2010 totalled EUR 17,043 million (19.5 percent of total external debt), up 16.8 percent from end-2009.rnrnMedium- and long-term external debt service ratio(2) ran at 32.3 percent in the first seven months of 2010, as compared with 33.1 percent in 2009. At end-July 2010, goods and services import cover(3) stood at 8.6 months, the same figure recorded at year-end 2009. rnrnNotes:rn1.Loans between parent company and its resident branch.rn2.External debt service ratio is computed as a ratio of medium- and long-term external debt service to exports of goods and services. rn3.Import cover is computed as a ratio of the NBR’s official reserves (foreign exchange + gold) at end of period to average monthly imports of goods and services for the period under review.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii
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