– Calculated Core Tier 1 ratio(1) (total risk) of 8.1% in 2012 in adverse scenariornrnErste Group Bank AG was subject to the 2011 EU-wide stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority (EBA), in cooperation with the Austrian Financial Market Authority (FMA), the Austrian National Bank (OeNB), the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC) and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), said the bank in a press release.rnrnThe EU-wide stress test seeks to assess the resilience of European banks to severe shocks and their specific solvency to hypothetical stress events under certain restrictive conditions.rnrnThe assumptions and methodology were established to assess banks’ capital adequacy against a 5% Core Tier 1 capital benchmark and are intended to restore confidence in the resilience of the banks tested. The adverse stress test scenario was set by the ECB and covers a two-year time horizon (2011-2012). The stress test has been carried out using a static balance sheet assumption as at December 2010. The stress test does not take into account future business strategies and management actions and is not a forecast of Erste Group Bank AG profits.rnrnAs a result of the assumed shock, the estimated consolidated Core Tier 1 capital ratio of Erste Group Bank AG would change to 8.1% under the adverse scenario in 2012 compared to 8.7% as of end of 2010.rnrnFollowing completion of the EU-wide stress test, the results determine that the capitalisation of Erste Group Bank AG not only meets but clearly exceeds the benchmark set out for the purpose of the stress test.rnrn“Smoothly passing the stress test reconfirmed once again the advantages of our business model aligned to the real economy as well as our strength to internally generate equity. Our Core Tier 1 ratio would change to 8.1% in the negative scenario. According to the stress test results our equity is considerably higher than the 5% minimum level. Including the private part of the participation capital (which remains unaccounted for in the stress test), the Core Tier 1 capital ratio would be 8.5%”, explained Manfred Wimmer(foto), Chief Financial Officer of Erste Group Bank AG.rnrn(1) Core Tier 1 ratio based on the EBA methodology and assumptions. It is based on total risk and excludes hybrid capital and the EUR 540 million participation capital provided by private investors but includes the EUR 1,224 million participation capital owed to the Republic of Austria.rnrnSee more details here
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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