Common Position of CEBS members representing the supervisory authorities from CEE Member States (the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary) on the warnings regarding the assessment of the CEE region and its financial systems rnrnThe supervisory authorities of the following CEE Member States: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary express their concerns about the publicly announced initiatives warning about the risks to the old EU Member States banks due to high exposures in CEE countries. rnrnSuch initiatives imply a high reputational risk not only for supervisory authorities, but above all for the financial systems they supervise. The published information accompanying these initiatives is often simplified and misleading and could havernnegative implications for banks operating in these countries. rnrnSuch self-fulfilling speculation totally disregards fundamental economic developments in the CEE countries and creates misperceptions that could inevitably be detrimental to both the CEE region and Europe as a whole.rnrnEach of the CEE Member States has its own specific economic and financial situation and these countries do not constitute a homogenous region. It is thus important first to distinguish between the EU Member States and the non-EU countries and also to clarify issues specific to particular countries or particular banking groups.1rnrnThe supervisors of each CEE Member State are fully responsible for the supervision of banks operating in their countries and, together with central banks, also for the financial stability ofrneach country. rnrnEU banks subsidiaries operating in CEE Member States are also supervised on a consolidated basis by the supervisory authority of the parent company. rnrnCooperation between the parent company supervisor and subsidiary supervisors in colleges represents an important part of supervisory work and should enable all relevant supervisors to acquire information about the whole banking group.rnrnThe current EU legal arrangement allows the governments of each EU country to respond adequately to the individual situation in the financial sector of each Member State.rnrnGovernments are fully responsible for taking specific measures tailored to the specific needs of each Member States financial system, including individual measures aimed at the subsidiaries of EU parent companies. rnrnThis responsibility is linked with the assessment of the systemic importance of a bank for the financial system in each country and national deposit guarantee schemes, as subsidiaries of EU banks operating in the CEE Member States hold large amounts of local deposits.rnrnThe supervisory authorities of the above mentioned CEE Member States would strongly welcome it if future initiatives assessing the risk of CEE countries and its possible impact on European economies could respect the given roles and responsibilities of thernsupervisors and governments of each Member State, which include consideration of all possible measures directed at preserving the stability of individual financial institutions and each Member States financial sector as whole. rnrnHowever, it is important to stress that the supervisory authorities of the CEE Member States support close cooperation between regulators aimed at fostering a coordinated approach to the current issues of the financial crisis.rnrn1 The only similarity is that banking groups operating in the CEE region traditionally do business in these countries in a very conservative manner, financing the real economy. The liabilities of their subsidiaries consist of a large amount of local deposits, which represent the major source for their lending activities. Moreover, the CEE region has proved to be, and will continue to be, the motor of growth and main profit centre for all EU cross-border banking groups exposed to this region.rnrnČeská národní banka rnNárodná banka SlovenskarnБългарска народна банка rnBANCA NAŢIONALĂ A ROMÂNIEIrnKomisja Nadzoru Finansowego rnPénzügyi Szervezetek Állami Felügyelete
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii
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