BANCI | ENGLISH

Successful review of the IMF stand-by arrangement

Autor:

2010-08-04 14:47

BCR Research: Today, the IMF team completed another review of Romania’s 24-month stand-by arrangement. Key points from the press conference:rnrn− The conditions for the next disbursement from the IMF are met and the NBR should receive EUR 0.9bn soon after the decision of the board rnrn− The conditions for the third disbursement from the EC are also met and the Ministry of Finance should receive EUR 1.2bn in Septemberrnrn− The IMF does not believe the monetary policy needs tightening following the VAT hike; however, the NBR should remain cautious and try to counter potential second round effects of the recent VAT hike on the consumer prices rnrn− IMF real GDP forecast is -1.9% in 2010 and 1.5%-2% in 2011rnrn− IMF expects inflation at 7.5% – 8% y/y in December 2010. The inflation could enter the central bank target next yearrnrn− The IMF will work closely with the Romanian authorities to improve the flexibility of the labour market and to reduce its informal segmentrnrn− Authorities should strive to improve the absorption of the EU funds. The total volume of the structural funds available for Romania is EUR 20bn, equal to the volume of the financial package available from the IMF, EC, WB and EBRDrnrn− It is premature to speak about a new agreement with the IMF and EC, but these two institutions are here to provide help in the future if needed. More talks on the occasion of another review of the current stand-by arrangement in the autumnrnrn− The reform of the public pension system, public wage system, the implementation of the fiscal responsibility law and the reduction of the stock of domestic arrears rank high on the agenda of the government in the next monthsrnrn− The IMF does not support a complete reversal of the recent 25% cut in public wages, but only some moderate increases next year rnrnMarket implications: the successful review of the IMF stand-by arrangement is positive news for the FX market and we maintain our forecast for the EURRON FX rate at 4.22 in December. We also stick to our scenario regarding upward pressures on domestic yields and wait for further developments (the disbursement from the EC in September).rnrn

Taguri:

Comentarii

Nu există comentarii pentru această știre.

Adauga un comentariu

Alte stiri din categoria: ENGLISH

Neutral interest rate in Romania

The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank

Merger of Alpha Bank and UniCredit Bank Romania

Press Release:"Alpha Services and Holdings announces a strategic partnership with UniCredit in RomaniaMerger of Alpha Bank Romania and UniCredit Bank Romania and creation of third largest bank in Romania by... detalii

National Bank of Romania (NBR) Board decisions on monetary policy

NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii

ING posts 2022 net result of €3,674 million, dividend of €0.389 per share

ING press release:ING posts FY2022 net result of €3,674 million,proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share 4Q2022 profit before tax of €1,711 million; CET1 ratio remains strong at 14.5%•Profit before tax up 29% on 4Q2021 and 24% on 3Q2022, mainly driven by higher income•Higher net interest income, as a further increase in liability margins helped offset TLTRO impact this quarter•Risk costs declined to 17 bps of average customer lending Full-year 2022 net result of €3,674 million, supported by growing customer base and increase in lending and deposits•On a full-year basis, our primary customer base grew by 585,000•Net core lending growth of €18 billion and net core deposits growth of €25 billion in 2022•Net result of €3,674 million in a challenging year; proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share CEO statement“Looking back, 2022 was... detalii