Austria’s Erste Bank, the majority owner of Romania’s largest lender by assets BCR, does not require or solicit any financing from the Romanian state for BCR and will support its cash-strapped customers, according to Erste executive president, Andreas Treichl. rnrnBCR is a solid and well capitalized bank and Erste will continue to supply it with capital and financing, said Treichl in a release sent to NewsIn, adding that both BCR and Erste will stand by their obligations and responsibility to finance the Romanian economy. rnrnThe executive president of the Austrian group explained the bank is ready to help its clients who might be facing difficulties in the current economic background. rnrnMass-media in Austria commented upon a tour of Finance Minister Josef Proell in the region, saying states like Romania are too proud of their economic performances and too confident the financial turmoil will by-pass them, which is why they were reluctant and uninterested by Vienna’s plan to protect Austrian lenders. rnrnMoody’s rating agency warned that Austrian and Swedish banks with subsidiaries in Eastern Europe could see their ratings down as economies in the area deteriorate. rnrnThe BCR group posted a net consolidated profit after taxes and minority interests of 1.25 billion lei (341.5 million euros) for the third quarter of 2008, a 71.8 percent boost on the similar period of 2007.rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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