Romanian banks are under heavy pressure after a new law passed by Government gave rise to a series of protests from their clients who are demanding lower rates for their loans.rnrnA layer said hundreds of people had signed to sue one bank (Volksbank) in order to get a fee cut from their monthly payments, according to a new law.rnrnOther banks, as the the biggest Romanian lender, BCR, part of Erste Bank Group, are also threatened by their clients to be sued in order to drop some fees and lower interest rates.rnrnBanks representatives said a law can not interfere in a bank pricing so they are going to challenge the law and maintain the pricing unchanged.rnrnThe banks are supported by Romanian National Bank representatives who thing the law is ambiguous and has to be changed. rnrnNicolae Cinteza, head of banks supervising in NBR said one big Romanian bank is going to sue the Romanian Government for the prejudices it pretends to suffer.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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