BANCI | ENGLISH

BCR Research keeps the forecast regarding an EUR/RON FX rate of 4.22 in December

Autor:

2010-07-05 18:39

The Executive Board of the IMF completed the fourth review of Romania’s economic performance under the 24-month stand-by arrangement. At the beginning of this week the central bank will receive EUR 0.9bn. This will consolidate its FX reserves which are already at a very comfortable level (EUR 31.6bn, the equivalent of ten months of imports of goods and services). rnrnThe IMF acknowledges the ambitious fiscal consolidation program currently followed by the Romanian government. Balancing the fiscal adjustment between expenditure cuts and tax increases will help cushion the social impact, while at the same time reversing excessive past increases in public wages.rnrnThe press release issued by the Fund includes an interesting statement regarding the monetary policy stance. The IMF considers that there is some room for further monetary easing going forward, despite the uncertainties related to the inflationary impact of the VAT increase and regional developments. In our opinion this means the central bank could cut the minimum reserve requirements in the next quarters to support lending to the private sector.rnrnImplications: the disbursement of the next tranche from the IMF is positive news for the FX and fixed income market. We maintain our forecast regarding an EURRON FX rate of 4.22 in December.rnrn

Taguri:

Comentarii

Nu există comentarii pentru această știre.

Adauga un comentariu

Alte stiri din categoria: ENGLISH

Neutral interest rate in Romania

The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank

Merger of Alpha Bank and UniCredit Bank Romania

Press Release:"Alpha Services and Holdings announces a strategic partnership with UniCredit in RomaniaMerger of Alpha Bank Romania and UniCredit Bank Romania and creation of third largest bank in Romania by... detalii

National Bank of Romania (NBR) Board decisions on monetary policy

NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii

ING posts 2022 net result of €3,674 million, dividend of €0.389 per share

ING press release:ING posts FY2022 net result of €3,674 million,proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share 4Q2022 profit before tax of €1,711 million; CET1 ratio remains strong at 14.5%•Profit before tax up 29% on 4Q2021 and 24% on 3Q2022, mainly driven by higher income•Higher net interest income, as a further increase in liability margins helped offset TLTRO impact this quarter•Risk costs declined to 17 bps of average customer lending Full-year 2022 net result of €3,674 million, supported by growing customer base and increase in lending and deposits•On a full-year basis, our primary customer base grew by 585,000•Net core lending growth of €18 billion and net core deposits growth of €25 billion in 2022•Net result of €3,674 million in a challenging year; proposed final 2022 dividend of €0.389 per share CEO statement“Looking back, 2022 was... detalii