In its meeting of June 30, 2009, the Board of the National Bank of Romania has decided the following:rnrn- to lower the monetary policy rate to 9.0 percent per annum from 9.5 percent starting with July 1, 2009; rnrn- to cut the minimum reserve requirement ratios on leu-denominated liabilities with residual maturities of up to two years of credit institutions to 15 percent from 18 percent starting with the July 24-August 23, 2009 maintenance period;rnrn- to lower the minimum reserve requirement ratios on foreign currency-denominated liabilities with residual maturities of up to two years to 35 percent from 40 percent starting with the July 24-August 23, 2009 maintenance period;rnrn- to actively use open-market operations in order to ensure an adequate management of liquidity in the banking system; rnrnThe NBR will closely monitor domestic and global economic developments so that, by using its available instruments, to ensure the fulfilment of its objectives of achieving and maintaining price stability in the medium term as well as financial stabilityrnThe analysis of the latest statistical data shows the continuation of the disinflation process, with the annual inflation rate falling to 5.95 percent in May 2009 from 6.45 percent in April, amid a slowdown of the growth in administered and volatile prices. The adjusted annual CORE2 inflation calculated by excluding the impact of administered and volatile prices (vegetables, fruits, eggs and fuel) as well as the effects of vice tax also dropped to an annual rate of 5.04 percent in May from 5.51 percent the previous month, reflecting the reduction of aggregate demand.rnrnThe faster-than expected adjustment of the external deficit is correlated with the steeper decline of domestic economic activity amid the effects of the global economic and financial crisis.rnIn the monetary area, it is worth noting the significant slowdown of the credit to the private sector, especially as regards lending to firms, with the annual dynamics reaching a seven-year low both in the aggregate and broken down by components.rnrnThe average interbank money market rate has approached the monetary policy rate. The average rates on banks new term deposits as well as their lending rates on new loans have seen significant downward adjustments, albeit remaining distorted in relation to the monetary policy rate. Meanwhile, the leu exchange rate volatility has considerably subsided amid a progressive improvement in financial investors global risk appetite and of visibly narrower current account deficit in the first half of 2009, as well as against the background of Romanias conclusion of the multilateral external financing arrangement with the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and other international financial institutions. rnrnThe above-mentioned developments, along with the outlook of continued disinflation in the upcoming months, highlight the need to calibrate monetary policy with the view to ensuring adequate broad real monetary conditions both for the achievement of medium-term inflation goals and for a sustainable revival of the lending process in the Romanian economy. rnrnIn light of the available data, the NBR Board has decided to lower the monetary policy rate to 9.0 percent per annum from 9.5 percent and to continue to actively use open-market operations in order to ensure an adequate management of liquidity in the banking system.rnrnConsequently, starting July 1, 2009, the rate on the deposit facility will be lowered to 5.0 percent per annum from 5.5 percent and the rate on the credit facility (Lombard) will be 13.0 percent per annum versus 13.5 percent. At the same time, the penalty rate for deficits of leu-denominated minimum reserve requirements will drop to 19.5 percent from 20.25 percent, starting with the July 24-August 23, 2009 maintenance period.rnrnIn order to ensure smooth liquidity flows, a gradual alignment to European Central Bank standards and to support sustainable lending process in the Romanian economy, the NBR Board has also decided to cut the minimum reserve requirements ratios on leu-denominated liabilities of credit institutions to 15 percent from 18 percent, and of those on foreign currency-denominated liabilities to 35 percent from 40 percent, both for residual maturities of up to two years, starting with the July 24-August 23, 2009 maintenance period.rnrnThe NBR Board considers that these decisions will contribute to ensuring an adequate level of liquidity and a gradual return of banks deposit and lending rates to the appropriate functional position in relation to the monetary policy rate.rnrnThe NBR Board reiterates that a firm and consistent implementation of the balanced macroeconomic policy mix monetary, fiscal and income, as well as of the structural reforms agreed within the multilateral external financing arrangement with international institutions is essential to consolidating disinflation and financial stability.rnrnThe NBR will closely monitor domestic and global economic developments so that, by using its available instruments, to ensure the fulfilment of its objectives of achieving and maintaining price stability in the medium term as well as financial stability.rnIn line with the announced calendar the next NBR Board meeting dedicated to monetary policy issues is scheduled for August 4, 2009, when a new quarterly Inflation will be examined.
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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