The EBRD plans a substantial increase in investments in 2009 as a direct response to the impact of the global financial crisis on the economies of eastern Europe, after making a net loss in 2008 of 602 million.rnrnThe 2008 shortfall, which compares with a net profit of 1.9 billion in 2007, was largely a result of unrealized losses in the EBRDs holding of equity stakes which have fallen in value in line with the decline of stock markets worldwide.rnrnThe loss will not affect the Banks investment plans as the EBRD remains very strongly capitalised. The Bank is planning to invest around 7 billion across its countries of operations this year, compared with 5.1 billion in 2008.rnrnThe EBRDs response to the crisis, which is now impacting all the countries where it invests, has focused on the immediate needs of the financial sector, in order to help strengthen sound institutions and maintain flows of credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, whose sources of funding have dried up.rnrnRecent investments have included financing packages for Bank of Georgia, for Ukraines Raiffeisen Bank Aval and for Banca Transilvania, one of Romanias leading SME banks.rnrnThe EBRD has also provided financial support to three regional banks in Russia with the aim of strengthening their capital base and to help make sure they can continue to support the economy, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises.rnrnThese investments have included a combination of loans to provide liquidity as well as subordinated debt and equity in order to help strengthen the banks capital base and balance sheets.rnrnThe EBRDs crisis response also includes support for working capital and critical investments in the corporate sector, as well as plans for a doubling to 1.5 billion of the EBRDs guarantees and liquidity for regional trade, seen as crucial to sustaining the economies in eastern Europe.rnrnThe Bank expects to invest around 3 billion in the financial sector in 2009, around 1.5 billion in the corporate sector and around 2.5 billion in the infrastructure and energy sectors.rnrnThe severity of the economic crisis in eastern Europe is threatening to throw nearly two decades of economic reform into reverse. In seeking solutions to the regions problems, the EBRD is working closely and successfully together with other international financial institutions and organisations.rnrn”The regions problems are deeply interwoven with those of the rest of Europe and the solution lies in a co-ordinated response from public authorities and international financial institutions,” said EBRD President Thomas Mirow.rnrnThe EBRDs investments of 5.1 billion in 2008 compared with 5.6 billion in 2007, with the decline mainly due to the impact of the financial crisis on the timing of project signings in the fourth quarter of 2008.rnrnDuring the year, the Bank continued to place a high priority on investments in the Western Balkans and the less advanced economies of the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Early Transition Countries*. A strong emphasis on investments in sustainable energy projects also continued.rnrnInvestments in the Early Transition Countries rose 14 percent to 586 million, while business volume in the Western Balkans rose 16 percent to 534 million. Investments in sustainable energy projects reached close to 1 billion, or 20 percent of total volume.rnrnRussia took a 36 percent share of total investments last year while the share of investments in the countries that joined the EU in 2004 remained at six percent.rnrnSince its creation in 1991, the EBRD has invested a total 41.7 billion. Together with third parties and via co-financing, the Bank has invested 134.8 billion over the last 17 years.rnrnDespite the impact of the financial crisis, the Bank has maintained its strong capital position, with members equity and callable capital totalling 26.3 billion at the end of 2008, against banking loan and equity assets of 15.1 billion.rnrnThe EBRD also continues to maintain high levels of liquidity and has effective access to international capital markets where it benefits from its Triple A status.rnrnrn*The Early Transition Countries are: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, Mongolia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistanrn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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NBR Board decisions on monetary policyIn its meeting of 4 April 2023, the Board of the National Bank of Romania decided:• to keep the monetary policy rate at 7.00 percent per annum;• to leave unchanged the lending (Lombard) facility rate at 8.00 percent per annum and the deposit facility rate at 6.00 percent per annum;• to keep the existing levels of minimum reserve requirement ratios on both leu- and foreign currency-denominated liabilities of credit institutions.The annual inflation rate went down to 15.52 percent in February 2023, from 16.37 percent in December 2022, relatively in line with forecasts. The decrease was mainly driven by the sizeable drop in the dynamics of fuel and electricity prices, under the impact of significant base effects and the change made to the energy price capping and compensation scheme starting 1... detalii
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