The last days and weeks have generated a lot of comments regarding the Austrian Banks exposure to Central and Eastern Europe and their committment to finance the economies in the region.rnrnIn order to clean up all misunderstandings, concerns or puzzles, Andreas Treichl, CEO of Erste Group would like to point that Erste Group’s engagement to CEE and Romania is a long term project and that the bank enjoys a strong base which allows it to support its commitment to the region, said the bank in a press release.rnrn”Both Erste Group and BCR will raise up to their commitment and responsibility to finance the Romanian economy. We do not need or seek capital assistance or funding from the Romanian state. BCR is a very solid and well capitalized bank and Erste Group will continue to provide it with capital and funding, if needed”, said Treichl.rnrn”We know there are challenging times ahead of us and we have prepared for that. We are also aware of our responsibility to offer assistance to those clients who might need support to pass through this period. Above all, though, we are and will remain a profitable, solid bank accross the CEE and in Romania”, Treichl concluded.rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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