Employees of Romanias largest lender, Erste Bank-owned Banca Comerciala Romana, or BCR, will go on general strike as of Wednesday, demanding higher wages, the bank said Monday.rnrn”The decision of the Federation of Independent Unions (FSI) within BCR occurs in the context in which the collective labor contract expired at the end of last year despite efforts of BCRs management throughout negotiations to find a convenient solution for both parties in the difficult economic conditions in Romania. Representatives of FSI halted negotiations immediately after the conciliation stage, thus refusing dialog, the lender said in a press release.rnrnThe management added it would challenge the unions decision in court.rnrnAccording to the banks management, wage offers were commitments the bank can take under the current economic conditions and were made alongside the commitment to keep the number of employees at around 8,700.rnrn”We are truly surprised by the unions approach, particularly since, in two months of negotiations, the management came up with no less than six offers meant to give BCR employees adequate salaries and end negotiations, the management said in the release.rnrnThe banks executive management made its six consecutive offer during a meeting at the end of last week, but was rejected by union leaders without any explanation, the release added.rnrnThe bank proposed a wage increase of 50% of the 2008 inflation rate and said would maintain most rights stipulated in the 2008 collective labor contract, saying vacation and Christmas bonuses are related to the banks financial performance. The bank is willing to set performance criteria together with the union to ensure correctness and transparency.rnrnOn the other hand, union leaders required the keeping of stipulations in the 2008 labor contract, with some amendments previously agreed by the management, and an additional 3% wage increase beside the managements offer.rnrn”This is all the bank can offer right now if our results improve significantly, well be able to increase bonuses, but conditions are difficult. This offer includes our commitment to keep some 8,700 employees and continue to expand our network which means continued investments in Romania and new opportunities, the banks management added.rnrn”BCR is still open to negotiations and we want to find solutions to unresolved issues, the management also said.rnrnBCR also said it will take measures to ensure a minimum level of client services with the support of part of the employees that will not join the protest.rnrnBCRs net profit stood at 1.24 billion lei (EUR1=RON4.2684) in the first nine months of 2008, up 71.8% on the year. The banks assets increased 4%, to RON62 billion end September.rnrn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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