The Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) group scored a net profit after tax and minority interests of 606.8 million lei (144.25 million euros) in the first semester, 20.1 percent smaller than in the similar period of 2008, due to three-fold hike in provisions. rnrnThe groups total assets advanced 5.1 percent in the first half to 72.57 billion lei (17.25 billion euros) at the end of June, from 69.08 billion lei at the end of last year. rnThe increase in assets at the value in lei stood at close to 12 percent in June 30 2008, when they totaled 64.82 billion lei. rnrnThe net profit downturn was mainly caused by higher provision expenses and by a drop in revenues from commissions generated by a reduced consumption, the BCR release reads. rnrnThe BCR group posted a coverage rate with provisions and guarantees corresponding to non-performing loans of 126 percent at portfolio level. rnRisk costs almost tripled year-on-year in the context of an advance in non-performing loans, to 783.1 million lei. rnOn the balance sheet side, provisions for credits hiked in the first six months of 2009 by 8.5 percent, due to a worsened macroeconomic context, the BCR representatives say. rnrnThe credit portfolio developed relatively well give the circumstances and non-performing loans remained at an acceptable level, representing only 6.2 percent of the total credit portfolio, the group explained, adding that these non-performing loans were mostly affected by mortgage loans as well as by real-estate developers. rnOperating profit rises 13.2% y/y in H1 to lei 1.364bnrnrnHowever, the groups operating profit hiked 13.2 percent in the first semester on the similar period last year, to 1.364 billion lei (324.2 million euros).rnThus, operating revenues climbed by 9.5 percent from 2.057 billion lei to 2.253 billion lei, underpinned mostly by a 21 percent increase in net incomes from interest rates to 1.738 billion lei. rnrnOn the other hand, revenues from taxes and commissions dropped following a cut in the populations consumption expenses. rnrnOperating expenses hiked annually with 4.3 percent from 852.5 million lei (231.9 million euros) to 889.1 million lei (211.3 million euros) on June 30 2009. rnHowever, personnel expenses dropped 5.5 percent to 504.3 million lei. rnrnBCR had opened 64 new units in the first six months of the year compared to the similar period of 2008. rnThe cost/revenues ratio improved to 39.5 percent in the first six months, compared to 41.4 percent in the similar interval last year. The return o equity ratio (ROE) dropped to 18.8 percent according to estimates. rnrnThe solvency rates stand above the level imposed by the central lender BNR, of 8 percent. rnrnThe financial data presented are consolidated, un-audited and according to the international financial reporting standards (IFRS). rnrnThe exchange rates used for converting lei to euros are those provided by the European Central Bank. rn
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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