IMF press release: Tonny Lybek, IMF Resident Representative in Romania and Bulgaria, made the following statement today:
“After over 4 years, my term as IMF’s Resident Representative in Romania and Bulgaria is coming to an end. I am very pleased to announce that my successor is Guillermo Tolosa, who will begin his assignment on July 1, 2013.”
“Mr. Tolosa, a Uruguayan citizen, is currently the IMF Resident Representative to Armenia, where he has worked closely with the authorities on their economic program supported by the IMF. Prior to that, he held a variety of assignments at the IMF, including contributing to the institution’s strategic thinking and developing macroeconomic policy analysis in a number of countries in Latin America and Eastern Europe.”
“Before joining the IMF, Mr. Tolosa served as an economist and economics professor at the Centre of Economic Research (CINVE) in Uruguay and at the University of the Republic of Uruguay. Throughout his distinguished career, Mr. Tolosa has earned a variety of scholarships and has written several papers on various policy issues.
Mr. Tolosa holds a PhD in Economics from University of California, Los Angeles.”
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The neutral nominal rate in Romania has been falling since the start of inflation targeting in 2005. The Taylor Rule clearly shows that interest rates peaked in 2022 and have been on a clear downward path ever since.Furthermore, the model estimates a long-term neutral nominal rate of around 3.9%, which is the equivalent of approx. 1.4% real.Using a more sophisticated model (i.e. New York FED’S HLW model), the real neutral interest rate in Romania is estimated currently at around 1.5% (1.7% 2023 average) and the historical mean at 1.2%.This implies a neutral nominal rate between 4.00% and 4.50%. In the past decade, the NBR real effective rate was below the neutral rate and only over the past year climbed above the neutral mark.Source: Erste Bank
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