Mario Draghi - Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB,
Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB,
Ewald Nowotny, Governor of Oesterreichische Nationalbank,
Vienna, 2 June 2016
Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. I would like to thank Governor Nowotny for his kind hospitality and express our special gratitude to his staff for the excellent organisation of today’s meeting of the Governing Council. We will now report on the outcome of our meeting.
Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that the monthly asset purchases of €80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. As a next step, on 8 June we will start making purchases under our corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP).
Moreover, starting on 22 June, we will conduct the first operation in our new series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations. Further information on implementation aspects of the CSPP will be released after the press conference on the ECB’s website.
The comprehensive package of decisions taken in early March underpins the momentum of the euro area’s economic recovery and fosters the return of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2%. In particular, our measures continue to ease the cost of credit and contribute to a strengthening in credit creation.
The economic recovery is gradually proceeding. Additional stimulus, beyond the impetus already taken into account, is expected from the monetary policy measures still to be implemented and will contribute to further rebalancing the risks to the outlook for growth and inflation.
In the current context, it is crucial to ensure that the very low inflation environment does not become entrenched in second-round effects on wage and price setting. The Governing Council will closely monitor the evolution of the outlook for price stability and, if warranted to achieve its objective, will act by using all the instruments available within its mandate.
Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.5%, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of 2016, after 0.3% in the last quarter of 2015. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand, while being dampened by weak exports. The latest data point to ongoing growth in the second quarter, though possibly at a lower rate than in the first quarter.
Looking ahead, we expect the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate but steady pace. Domestic demand remains supported by the pass-through of our monetary policy measures to the real economy. Favourable financing conditions and improvements in corporate profitability continue to promote investment. Moreover, sustained employment gains, which are also benefiting from past structural reforms, and still relatively low oil prices provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and private consumption. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is slightly expansionary.
However, the economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and a sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.
This outlook is broadly reflected in the June 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.6% in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017 and 2018. Compared with the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised up for 2016 and has remained broadly unchanged for 2017 and 2018.
The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, but the balance of risks has improved on the back of the monetary policy measures taken and the stimulus still in the pipeline. Downside risks continue to relate to developments in the global economy, to the upcoming British referendum and to other geopolitical risks.
According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation in May 2016 was -0.1%, up from -0.2% in April, mainly reflecting higher energy and services price inflation. Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates are likely to remain very low or negative in the next few months before picking up in the second half of 2016, in large part owing to base effects in the annual rate of change of energy prices. Supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should recover further in 2017 and 2018.
This broad pattern is also reflected in the June 2016 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 0.2% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. In comparison with the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised slightly up for 2016, reflecting recent oil price increases, and has remained unchanged for 2017 and 2018.
Turning to the monetary analysis, broad money (M3) continued to grow at a robust pace in April 2016, with its annual rate of growth standing at 4.6%, after 5.0% in March. As in previous months, annual growth in M3 is mainly supported by its most liquid components, with the narrow monetary aggregate M1 growing at an annual rate of 9.7% in April, after 10.1% in March.
Loan dynamics followed the path of gradual recovery observed since the beginning of 2014. The annual rate of change of loans to non-financial corporations (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) stood at 1.2% in April 2016, compared with 1.1% in March. Developments in loans to enterprises continue to reflect the lagged relationship with the business cycle, credit risk and the ongoing adjustment of financial and non-financial sector balance sheets. The annual growth rate of loans to households (adjusted for loan sales and securitisation) remained broadly stable at 1.5% in April, after 1.6% in March.
The monetary policy measures in place since June 2014 have clearly improved borrowing conditions for firms and households, as well as credit flows across the euro area. The comprehensive package of new monetary policy measures adopted in March this year underpins the ongoing upturn in loan growth, thereby supporting the recovery of the real economy.
To sum up, a cross-check of the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the need to preserve an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation in order to secure a return of inflation rates towards levels that are below, but close to, 2% without undue delay.
Monetary policy is focused on maintaining price stability over the medium term and its accommodative stance supports economic activity. As emphasised repeatedly by the Governing Council, and as again strongly echoed in both European and international policy discussions, in order to reap the full benefits from our monetary policy measures, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively, both at the national and at the European levels.
Structural policies are essential, given continued high structural unemployment and low potential output growth in the euro area. Structural reforms are necessary in all euro area countries, although specific reform needs differ across the individual economies. At this stage, the focus should be on actions to raise productivity and improve the business environment, including the provision of an adequate public infrastructure, which are vital to increase investment and boost job creation. The enhancement of current investment initiatives, including the extension of the Juncker plan, and progress on the capital markets union will also contribute positively to this objective.
In an environment of accommodative monetary policy, the swift and effective implementation of structural reforms, in line with the country-specific recommendations recently published by the European Commission, will not only lead to higher sustainable economic growth in the euro area but will also make the euro area more resilient to global shocks. Fiscal policies should also support the economic recovery, while remaining in compliance with the fiscal rules of the European Union. Full and consistent implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact over time and across countries is crucial to maintain confidence in the fiscal framework. At the same time, all countries should strive for a more growth-friendly composition of fiscal policies.
We are now at your disposal for questions.
* * *
Question: I might have missed it, but I did not hear just now whether you expressed a view on whether the risks to inflation are now broadly balanced or tilted to the downside, whether that has changed. Could you please let us know?
My second question is, at the accounts of your April meeting, you said that there was no conclusive evidence yet on whether there are second-round effects, and I'm wondering whether since then you have seen substantial evidence pointing in either direction.
Draghi: To the first question I'll answer, basically, reading again what is in the introductory statement: additional stimulus beyond the impetus already taken into account is expected from the monetary policy measures still to be implemented, namely the TLTRO II and the CSPP, and will contribute to further rebalancing the risks to the outlook for growth and inflation. In other words, what we are saying is that we have the June Eurosystem staff projections, and what's called the probability mass of risks over the years 2017 and 2018 has shifted slightly upward. So that is what it is. It's nothing dramatic.
On the second point, no, we haven't seen second-round effects. But at the same time, in the midst of what one would qualify as good news as far as growth and employment are concerned, we still see no substantial pressures on the wage and price-setting mechanisms, with the possible exception of Germany. It goes without saying that the Governing Council remains watchful and alert to the presence of any second-round effect, and stands ready to act using all the instruments within its mandate.
Question: I have another question on your forecasts. You're saying you're expecting more stimulus as you implement the measures. Looking at the forecasts, at the end of the forecasts horizon, on the inflation side they are the same; on the GDP side they're even worse. So I'm wondering, can you only sustain the very gradual recovery at the sluggish growth pace you've described with the help of ever-increasing stimulus, in which case are you prepared to keep that going as long as – maybe indefinitely? Or is the fact that your growth and inflation forecasts haven't improved after the March measures, is that a sign that basically any additional easing will not be effective and will essentially be pointless? Is that underlining your call for structural reforms, in a way? In which case, why are you saying you're going to do more and more and more, if you know that it's not going to make a difference? That would be my first question.
The second one is on Greece: have you discussed reinstating the waiver on Greek debt? And if you haven't, then I would be interested in knowing what it is you're waiting for.
Draghi: To the first question, no, we think our measures make a lot of difference, and have made a lot of difference in the sense of being very effective, even with the present pace of structural reforms which could be faster. It's pretty clear that in the presence of a faster pace of structural reforms our measures would be showing their positive effects faster, but even in its absence they have been effective. And we see that basically the March package has been instrumental in avoiding a severe deterioration of financial conditions after the turbulences around the end of last year, and certainly has supported the recovery.
I comment about the persistence of weak underlying price pressure, so we see growth which isn't really – I wouldn't use the word “sluggish” after the first-quarter data. But as I said, maybe the second quarter will produce a slightly lower figure. So we have to see the full impact of the measures that we have decided in March and that will have to be implemented yet, in June - the two measures that I mentioned before. I've commented about the rebalancing of risks, to that picture.
On the waiver, we had a presentation. We had no decision. The Governing Council acknowledged the significant progress made in the last two months which led to the agreement of the Eurogroup on 24 May. And it was based on the positive assessment by the institutions of the policy package adopted by the Greek authorities. So the package sets now the basis for the completion of the first review under the ESM programme. The Eurogroup has asked the institutions to verify the implementation of the prior actions under the supplementary MoU, and this is an ongoing discussion with the Greek government. Once the prior actions will be implemented, the Governing Council will take a decision leading to reinstatement of the waiver.
Question: My first question is about Brexit. What specifically is the ECB doing to prepare for Brexit? I'm asking about swap lines and other measures, in response to possible market turmoil if Britons vote to leave.
The second question is about the medium term: in the minutes of the previous meeting we read that we should not assume that “medium-term” coincides with the forecast horizon. In that case, could you give us a better idea of how long is “medium-term”?
Draghi: Well, we've discussed this since, I would say, the beginning of the existence of the ECB, because our objectives are defined over the medium term, and there isn't a precise timeline for the medium term. The length of the medium term depends on the nature of the shock and on the size of the shock. To give you an example, given the size of the shock that we had with the financial crisis, with the aftermath of the financial crisis, with the sovereign crisis in the eurozone and the repeated crises we had, we are seeing that the medium term for a return of inflation to our objective of an inflation rate of close to but below 2% is pretty long, and has been pretty long. But we continue insisting, saying that we want to reach this objective without undue delay, and when we say that we stand ready to act if needed.
So the conditions under which we would act, that's another important question that's been asked, and in a sense it's a complementary response to the definition of “medium-term”. We would act if we were to see an unwarranted tightening in the financing conditions which would alter the medium-term outlook for inflation, and we would act if we were to see the persistence of second-round effects which would entrench the effects of lower oil prices into the wage and price-setting mechanisms.
On your other question, the ECB is ready for any outcome. Of course, we've said, and I'll say it again, that the UK in Europe and the euro zone are mutually beneficial. So the ECB has a view whereby the UK should remain in the European Union, because the European Union would benefit from its permanence, and we believe that the UK too would benefit from staying in the European Union. The ECB is ready for all contingencies.
Question: I'd like to ask two questions, one a quick follow-on question from your response on Greece. How soon could the Governing Council take a decision after the prior actions are passed? Would it be something that could be immediate, or would it require another policy meeting?
For my second question I'd like to ask a little bit about the forecasts. The 0.5% growth figure for the first quarter seemed to produce quite a lot of enthusiasm among economists that we were now seeing a turning point, that strong domestic demand was being joined by stronger figures on investment, and that the recovery in the euro zone was strengthening. From what you've said today it doesn't seem that you're entirely convinced by that. With that in mind, would it be possible for you to say a little bit about what the staff forecasts say about what happens to core inflation and other indicators of underlying demand?
Draghi: On Greece, it will require another policy meeting. We'll also have to see what the ESM Board of Directors will decide. But, as I said, there will be a decision leading to the reinstatement of the waiver.
On the other question, indeed, we had a good first-quarter figure for GDP. We expect the recovery to continue, at perhaps a slower pace in the second quarter, but still a good figure. We have headline inflation, which is what is in the forecast, because of oil prices. At the same time we had data on core inflation for the first few months of this year, probably the first three months of this year, which came out weaker. And this is because of what I said before, namely that we don't see, with the possible exception of Germany, any substantial pressure in the wage and price mechanisms. We should also consider the producer prices also because of non-oil commodity price fall, and so that has to be taken into account. Is this going to be the final say? No. We have to see the full impact of the measures that we've decided in March, both the ones that have been implemented and the ones that are going to be implemented in June, namely the CSPP and the TLTRO.
Question: My first question is on the inflation forecasts. You've acknowledged the base effects of oil in the second half of this year, the rally in the oil prices that we've seen, and that the impact of the stimulus that you announced back in March is incorporated into these figures, and yet we still have a gap relative to target over the forecast horizon. So can I just confirm that you acknowledge that it seems that, today, looking over that horizon, more stimulus will be needed? Is that the message that you're sending, and at which point over the horizon will you look to review both the end of the QE programme and when more stimulus is needed?
My second question refers to some recent comments made by Danièle Nouy over non-performing loans, when she said, “The ECB is fast coming up with a plan to address legacy non-performing loans.” Is that still in the works, and can you give me any sense of when you're going to come up with something?
Draghi: On the second question, I will ask the Vice-President to comment on the NPLs. We've kind of divided our work somehow.
On the first question, I think right now – I've said – we have to focus on implementation. We have to focus on the effects of the measures that we've taken. We've seen that the probability mass of risks has shifted upward, although it's not a dramatic effect at all, and then we will be in a better position to answer your question.
Constâncio: What is being prepared by the SSM is of course supervisory action as is appropriate. Which means that the SSM has been assessing – both in quantitative terms, which were basically known, but also in qualitative terms – what are the nature of the different types of NPLs that exist in the banks; and also examining the best practices in all member countries. Because as you know there is not a European regime dealing with the provisioning systems to prepare write-offs for the NPLs. There is now a homogeneous definition of NPLs, but that's the only thing that is harmonised at the European level. And then as a micro-supervisor, the SSM will establish plans to have supervisory actions to individual banks to speed up the work-out of NPLs in order as quickly as possible to address that problem, working on the balance sheet of the banks, which of course implies that it will take some time.
Question: Since the CSPP is going to start on 8 June, could you please explain the decision-making process on which corporate bonds you are going to buy?
Second question: since you are also here to celebrate the 200-year anniversary of OeNB, why are national central banks still needed today, and what will possibly be the role of Österreichische Nationalbank in 2216?
Draghi: Well, I'll answer immediately to part of the first question, because then I will ask Governor Nowotny to respond to that. But just to give you an idea, the forecasts that we are discussing today are the product of a bottom-up process coming from the national central banks. We have our forecasts of two types: twice a year it's our own forecasts, and twice a year it's done by the national central banks based on their greater knowledge, or at least more detailed knowledge, of their economies. So that is also something to be kept in mind. Now, there are many other ways in which your question can be answered. Let me also say that our decision-making process is based on the collective wisdom of all the national central banks and the ECB. So there isn't one brain in Frankfurt that basically decides everything. And now I will give the floor to Ewald.
Nowotny: I can immediately follow this. First, of course, we have the role of our participation in forming of monetary policy, which is just as we have it today. It's the Governing Council which means we have the ECB plus the governors of the national central banks. But in addition to this, of course, national central banks have a number of other activities. One is that we are involved in payment services, so all the payments in Austria, to a large extent, go via, in this case, the Austrian Central Bank. A very important role and increasing role is our role with regard to banking supervision: again this is something where we have the ECB, but the ECB does this for the 129 biggest banks directly, in joint supervisory teams, and part of these joint supervisory teams are of course experts from the national central banks; and for the less significant banks it's directly done by the national central banks. We are heavily involved in financial statistics, and of course the technical side of monetary policy. That means the execution of monetary policy: how banks really can get to the loans given by the ECB. This is all done on the national level.
So I think at whatever time span you think about, for the next 100 years I'm pretty sure there will be a national central bank. As I said in one interview, I'm sure the Austrian Central Bank will celebrate its 300th birthday, and I expect that at this time it will a lady governor who is at the head of the central bank.
Question: I've got one question: are you not getting worried that your 0% interest-rate policy is causing imbalances and bubbles in certain areas of the economy?
Draghi: This is a question that I am asked several times, very often, because clearly it is a concern for the savers of the euro zone, very much like it was a concern – it's been a concern for seven, eight years – for the savers in the United States, in the United Kingdom and in Japan. It should be said that the low interest rates are a symptom of a weak economy, an economy where there is an excess of savings over investments. And it should be said that the low interest rates, zero interest rates or even negative interest rates, are the right monetary policy measures in order to strengthen recovery and restore growth. At that point in time, interest rates will rise again. So to say it briefly: for interest rates to be higher tomorrow, they have to be low today. Also let me add that the ECB has a mandate to deliver price stability, defined as that rate of inflation which is close to but below 2%, and has to use all the instruments that are necessary to deliver that mandate.
Question: Why, in your opinion, is the euro not weakening any more, even if the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten in the next few months? Is there a sort of agreement among authorities for not strengthening the dollar too much?
The second question is about the report of the five presidents. Do you think it is still realistic today? Haven't the political conditions probably changed?
Draghi: You know we don't comment directly on exchange rates. We say that the exchange rate is not a policy target, and it's not a policy target. However, we say the exchange rate is also important for growth and price stability. So the exchange rate is the outcome of several factors, one of which is the different position that the euro zone economy has in the recovery path with respect to other economies. That is something we want to keep in mind. And that will certainly elicit in the future, in the coming months, monetary policies that tend certainly not to converge; possibly diverge. That is something that we also want to keep in mind.
But as I said, the exchange rate is the outcome of several other factors: what happens with other geopolitical risks that we have identified; what happens with the geopolitical risks that are near to us, concerning the United Kingdom decision; it's also the outcome of the behaviour of the price of oil and many other factors. So it's hard to give one answer to your question.
The second question you ask me whether the Five Presidents' Report is still realistic. In a sense, it's not a question you should address to me but to the leaders, because it's a political question. They are the ones who are in the best position to assess the realism of their propositions, of their plans. But what the Five Presidents' Report basically says is that if the monetary union remains incomplete it remains fragile, and it remains vulnerable to shocks. To shocks of an economic nature, to shocks of a political nature. And in so being, it won't be a factor that will help the return of confidence in the euro zone and therefore a faster recovery and stronger growth. That's what the Five Presidents' Report, at bottom, says.
Question: There is a weird discussion going on in Germany in the last months about the abolition of cash, and it is a discussion that comes up every time there is something which has nothing to do with it like the €500 banknote question, or now some Germans say even that you will go on and abolish the €200 banknote. And even when Schäuble tried to talk about a limit to cash, which is something that is going on in every country, many Germans said, “This is the end of cash.” What do you, also as an economist, think about this “cash is freedom” discussion in Germany?
Draghi: I would abstain from commenting about the general proposition whether cash is necessary to freedom, but I can certainly say that our decision about the €500 banknote has nothing to do with the abolition of cash. Nothing to do with it. So much so that we are substituting the €500 with more creation of the €200s. So that is simple, but it's very important to make it clear, because there has been confusion.
Question: Just going back to the inflation forecasts, you expect inflation to still be significantly below target by 2018. That'll be six years of sub-target inflation. How comfortable are you, given that outlook, with QE ending in nine or ten months? Am I right in thinking that you're saying that unless something changes in the meantime you're happy to let QE expire at the end of March? And does that mean that you're relying heavily on these TLTROs that are coming this month?
My second question is, in terms of the implementation of QE, there are reports that you're facing scarcity in certain markets: how confident are you that you can continue to buy all the bonds you want? And how much of a problem would it be, if you extended QE beyond March, to continue to find the necessary bonds?
Draghi: Answering the first question, I'll in a sense restate what I said before: we will focus on the implementation of the substantial packages of measures that we decided in March; but also I think we decided a significant package at the beginning of December, the effects of which we are seeing, and will continue seeing in the coming months. These June macroeconomic projections are just a snapshot of how we see things now, but we have to see what the full effect is of what's been decided before, and the effect of what's been decided but not implemented yet. It's quite clear, however, that we will not hesitate to act, and that is the meaning of the sentence in the introductory statement that contains the words “without undue delay”.
And this drives me to the second question, to answering the second question you asked. The purchase programme is proceeding smoothly. There are some conversations in the market about potential limits that this programme may meet. We are not seeing, really, any difficulty. We see ample liquidity. The programme continues to proceed smoothly. But in case we were to face limits, the design of the programme contains enough flexibility so that we can adjust the programme in a way that would meet the desired size, and we have given in the previous months ample evidence that we are willing, able and ready to do so.
Question: The Convergence Report is out next week, and while most of the countries have agreed by treaty to join, nobody seems really close. I'd like to ask if you think anyone will join the euro again, and what will have to happen for that to happen?
Draghi: Well, the Convergence Report will show, as a matter of fact, that all the countries that haven't joined the euro don't yet satisfy the requirements for joining the euro. Although I should acknowledge very significant progress in stabilising, in consolidating budgets, in stabilising growth, and in pursuing the right economic policies, and often very significant structural reforms in many of these countries. The second point is we have to judge all these issues in perspective, really. We have to give ourselves time. And if you look, for example, at the poll of the Eurobarometer, that shows that the majority of the citizens in these countries are still in favour of joining the euro.
Question: My question is linked to the decade of low interest rates and ultra-easy monetary policy. It's been a long time that the rates are very low, and you are giving signals to markets that they are going to stay low for a prolonged period of time. So in this environment, let's say depositors lose their patience and start to withdraw their money from banks, bringing their loan-deposit ratios far above 100%, making banks fully dependent on money from the ECB: do you have any contingency plans for such a scenario? That's the first question.
The second one is rather theoretical. I know that your mandate is clear. Your mandate and your target is 2% – the 2% inflation target is very clear. But there are some calls, especially from the Bank of Japan recently, they might be thinking of revising their target to, let's say, 1% inflation. What are your thoughts about this? Would it be possible for the European Central Bank to revise their official target?
Draghi: To your first question, we have no evidence of withdrawing of deposits from the banking system. We actually have opposing evidence from central banks of other countries where interest rates became more negative than they are in the euro zone, and they don't experience any withdrawal of deposits from the banking system. Also, again, we shouldn't forget the experience of other countries like the United States, where they had zero interest rates for – I never remember whether it's seven or eight years. In our case, we started decreasing interest rates in November 2011, but still from a fairly high level. So our experience is much more limited with that.
Your second question has been asked several times today. “Why don't you revise the inflation target?” Now, there are two schools of thought. Some people say we should revise it downward and simply accept the fact that we'll never reach 2%, and we should take 1% or 0%. And some say, “Oh, you should revise it upward and go to 3% or 4%, because in this way you will elicit expectations that you will go up with your policies.” Now, the ECB position has been basically contrary to revising the inflation objective either way, and the reasons are different in different cases. The revision upward, frankly, would test seriously our credibility, because people would actually say, “How come you want to go to 3% when you're not even able to reach 1.5%?”
And by the way, each revision on both sides undermines the credibility of the central bank – for different reasons, but it undermines the credibility of the central bank. That effect by itself would raise the risk premium, and in so doing it would increase real interest rates and would go against the objective that we have of price stability but also against restoring growth. In the case of accepting a lower inflation target, this effect would be immediate. We would have an immediate increase in real interest rates, and therefore a further drag on the recovery and the return to inflation – and also there are many other reasons why, in the late ’90s, all central banks of major monetary policy jurisdictions decided that 2% was the right objective and the right target.
We've discussed these reasons on many occasions. Especially so in the monetary union. Where you lose flexibility in the exchange rate, you will have to have adjustments in wage and prices that are sticky downward, and so you need a certain cushion for carrying out these adjustments. So the reasons for keeping this objective are overwhelming, and they work in both directions.
Question: I would like to touch on the question of one of my colleagues concerning the projections of inflation. It seems to me that it becomes more and more difficult to get inflation back on target just with monetary policy. On the other side, you repeat after every Governing Council session that there's of course a problem that the political side doesn't help by structural reforms and so on. Do you, does the Governing Council, have any idea how such a process of structural reforms channelled by the political side could get on the move, that you as the ECB get some help to get inflation back on track?
Draghi: First, as I said before, we should carry out the right monetary policy according to our mandate regardless of whether structural reforms are going to be put in place or not, because we have our mandate, and because ultimately – let's never forget the experience that Chairman Volcker had in the late ’70s, early ’80s – all in all, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. What makes a big difference, however, is that if structural reforms are in place, the time that it takes to reach this objective is shorter. And for us it would be out of our competence to actually decide which are the right structural reforms for each country, but it's quite clear that each country has an agenda of structural reforms, of those reforms that are more apt to that country's growth, to restoring competitiveness, to restoring competitiveness especially in the products and services markets. That is very, very important.
There is also one other side to your question. You didn't say it but you may have implied it: whether accommodative monetary policy removes the incentive to carry out structural reforms. We've discussed this on many occasions, and by and large we wouldn't agree with this. As a matter of fact, we see the two things as complementary, and we think that the incentive to undertake structural reforms should come from other considerations. For example, a very high unemployment rate in one country should be an incentive sufficient to undertake the necessary structural reforms, much more than a high interest rate on the financial markets.
Question: Speaking of structural policy reforms, which reforms must be implemented, particularly in Austria?
Draghi: As I said, the countries themselves have the best knowledge, the best competence to decide which structural reforms should be implemented, and therefore I am giving the floor to Governor Nowotny to answer this question.
Nowotny: Well, but I would say, to follow your lead, I think that one has to be very careful to stick to the field of monetary policy that we have to take care of, so I do not think as a central bank as such we should develop specific ideas about priorities in structural reforms. But I think from what we see in general, we have structural reforms both in labour markets and the product markets. There are studies, especially by the IMF, where there is a certain sequencing. So in certain circumstances labour market reforms might have priority; in other circumstances, product market reforms may have priority. And if I may say so, Mr President, we at the Governing Council are going to discuss this in more detail.
Source: ECB statement
Adauga un comentariu
Adauga un comentariu folosind contul de Facebook
Alte stiri din categoria: Noutati BCE
Banca Centrala Europeana (BCE) a început să achiziționeze active de la bănci comerciale în luna martie 2015 ca parte a măsurilor neconvenționale de politică monetară. Aceste achiziții de active, cunoscute și sub denumirea de „relaxare cantitativă” detalii
Banca Centrala Europeana (BCE) a anuntat astazi ca nu va majora dobanda pentru moneda euro, aflata la 0%, pana la mijlocul anului 2020, prelungind astfel asa numita perioada de "forward guidance", parte a strategiei de politica monetara de stimulare a economiei zonei euro care inca nu si-a revenit din perioada de recesiune. Decizia BCE va influenta si politica monetara din Romania, asa incat nu ar trebui sa ne asteptam la cesteri de dobanda in urmatorul detalii
Banca Centrala Europeana (BCE) trebuie sa fie consultata inainte de adoptarea unor reglementari care afecteaza bancile nationale, se arata intr-o scrisoare trimisa de BCE presedintelui Camerei Deputatilor, Liviu Dragnea, initiatorul unui proiect de lege pentru repatrierea rezervei de aur detalii
AVIZUL BĂNCII CENTRALE EUROPENE din 10 mai 2019 cu privire la taxa pe activele financiare ale băncilor și cu privire la indicele de referință al ratei dobânzii pentru contractele de credit pentru detalii
- Topul bancilor cu cele mai mici dobanzi la creditele de nevoi personale
- Topul bancilor la active in 2019
- Topul celor mai mari banci din Romania dupa valoarea activelor in 2018
- Topul bancilor dupa active in 2017
- Topul bancilor cu cele mai mici comisioane la contul curent cu card si online banking
- Cum se amana ratele la creditele Garanti BBVA
- Cum se face amanarea ratelor la creditele Unicredit Bank, conform OUG 227/2020
- Cum se amana ratele la Credit Europe Bank
- Banca Romaneasca anunta cum vor fi amanate ratele la credite
- Raiffeisen Bank isi repara sistemul informatic si de carduri tot week-end-ul, dupa caderea din aceasta saptamana
- ROBOR a scazut la 1,59%, dupa ce BNR a redus dobanda la 1,25%
- Dobanzile variabile la creditele noi in lei nu scad, pentru ca IRCC ramane aproape neschimbat, la 2,4%, desi ROBOR s-a micsorat cu un punct, la 2,2%
- IRCC, indicele de dobanda pentru creditele in lei ale persoanelor fizice, a scazut la 1,75%, dar nu va avea efecte imediate pe piata creditarii
- Istoricul ROBOR la 3 luni, in perioada 01.08.1995 - 31.12.2019
- ROBOR 3 luni (date statistice pe perioada 1995-2019, conform BNR)
- Cei care-si amana ratele la credite trebuie sa se asigure ca le vor putea plati ulterior, avertizeaza bancile
- Doar 14% dintre romani prefera sa-si faca un depozit online, fara sa mearga la banca
- Noi reguli privind platile online cu cardul valabile din 2021, anunta ARB
- Comunitatea bancara anunta ca va participa in continuare la procesul de relansare a economiei
- Comunitatea bancara considera ca educatia financiara trebuie sa devina o prioritate
- Normele metodologice pentru aplicarea taxei bancare, publicate de Ministerul Finantelor
- Noul ROBOR se va aplica automat la creditele noi si prin refinantare la cele in derulare
- Taxa bancara ar putea fi redusa de la 1,2% la 0,4% la bancile mari si 0,2% la cele mici, insa bancherii avertizeaza ca indiferent de nivelul acesteia, intermedierea financiara va scadea iar dobanzile vor creste
- Raiffeisen anunta ca activitatea bancii a incetinit substantial din cauza taxei bancare; strategia va fi reevaluata, nu vor mai fi acordate credite cu dobanzi mici
- Tariceanu anunta un acord de principiu privind taxa bancara: ROBOR-ul ar putea fi inlocuit cu marja de dobanda a bancilor
- Deficitul de cont curent, redus semnificativ in ianuarie 2021. Investitiile straine, la doar 30% fata de anul trecut
- Deficitul de cont curent a crescut in 2020 la 11 miliarde euro. Datoria pe termen mediu si lung, majorata cu 17 miliarde euro
- Care este numarul cardurilor cobranded din totalul cardurilor active
- Creditarea a ramas la niveluri ridicate si in luna octombrie
- Imprumuturile pentru consum si-au redus la jumatate ritmul de crestere, pe cand creditele imobiliare sunt neafectate de criza
- Executarile silite ale firmelor ar putea fi suspendate, in cadrul concordatului preventiv
- Asociația Consilierilor Juridici din Sistemul Financiar - Bancar si-a lansat noul site
- Legea nr. 52/2020 pentru modificarea si completarea Legii nr. 77/2016 privind darea in plata a unor bunuri imobile in vederea stingerii obligatiilor asumate prin credite
- OUG nr. 29/2020 privind masurile Guvernului de sustinere a firmelor afectate de criza coronavirusului COVID-19
- Decizia Curtii Constitutionale nr.731 din 6 noiembrie 2019 referitoare la Legea pentru modificarea şi completarea Legii nr.77/2016 privind darea in plata a unor bunuri imobile in vederea stingerii obligatiilor asumate prin credite
- Productia de cereale din 2020, in scadere cu 38%
- Romania a inceput anul 2021 cu cel mai mare deficit comercial la nivel regional
- Pensia medie pentru limita de varsta a ajuns la 1.829 lei in T4 2020
- Dobanda pe termen lung pentru Romania - in scadere la 2,65%, contrar trendului european
- Productia industriala, in scadere anuala cu 2,3% in ianuarie 2021
- ING Bank a intermediat o emisiune de tip plasament privat pentru Banca Internationala de Investitii
- Garanti BBVA Romania ofera angajatilor asigurari de sanatate
- Clientii Raiffeisen se plang ca nu functioneaza aplicatia Smart Mobile
- OTPdirekt Internet Banking si Smart Bank nu vor functiona timp de doua zile
- Banca Transilvania, punctaj maxim la evaluarea ARIR pentru comunicarea cu investitorii
- BNR propune Parlamentului plafonarea dobanzilor la creditele bancilor intre 1,5 si 4 ori peste DAE medie, in functie de tipul creditului; in cazul IFN-urilor, plafonarea dobanzilor nu se justifica
- Legile privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite si a datoriilor preluate de firmele de recuperare se discuta in Parlament (actualizat)
- Legea privind plafonarea dobanzilor la credite nu a fost inclusa pe ordinea de zi a comisiilor din Camera Deputatilor
- Senatorul Zamfir, despre plafonarea dobanzilor la credite: numai bou-i consecvent!
- Parlamentul dezbate marti legile de plafonare a dobanzilor la credite si a datoriilor cesionate de banci firmelor de recuperare (actualizat)
- Programul "Noua casa" va avea garantii de 1,5 miliarde lei in anul 2021
- Cat sunt alocatiile pentru copii din 1 ianuarie 2021
- Aplicatia pentru completarea Formularului 094 in format electronic va fi disponibila pe www.anaf.ro, incepand cu data de 20 ianuarie
- Suspendarea ratelor la credite se poate face pe maxim 9 luni, anunta Ministerul Finantelor
- Normele de aplicare ale OUG 227/2020 privind amanarea ratelor la credite, publicate de Ministerul Finantelor
- Legalitatea prelucrarii datelor personale de catre Biroul de Credit
- Care sunt bancile si IFN-urile care-si raporteaza clientii la Biroul de Credit?
- Site-ul Birouldecredit.ro are probleme de functionare
- Intrebari frecvente despre Biroul de Credit
- Lista bancilor si IFN-urilor care-si raporteaza clientii la Biroul de Credit
- Decizia Curtii de Apel Bucuresti in procesul dintre Raiffeisen Banca pentru Locuinte si Curtea de Conturi
- Vodafone, obligata de judecatori sa despagubeasca un abonat caruia a refuzat sa-i repare un telefon stricat sau sa-i dea banii inapoi (decizia instantei)
- Taxa de reziliere a abonamentului Vodafone inainte de termen este ilegala (decizia definitiva a judecatorilor)
- ANAF trebuie sa plateasca BCR Leasing dobanzi fiscale de 6,7 milioane lei, pentru obligatii suplimentare de plata a TVA anulate de justitie
- Clauzele abuzive din contractele de credit nu au termen de prescriptie, deci pot fi constatate oricand, chiar si dupa plata creditelor, a decis CJUE
- Soldul bugetar la doua luni a ajuns deja la -1,14% din PIB. Avansul cheltuielilor, mult peste al veniturilor
- Salariul mediu a coborat inapoi sub 3.400 lei, in ianuarie 2021
- Inflatia anuala a crescut la 3,16% in luna februarie 2020
- Comertul, la prima scadere din ultimele opt luni in ianuarie 2021
- Romania, la 2% inflatie anuala, conform Eurostat
- Preturile din Romania sunt la nivelul de 55,2% din media UE
- Romania - cea mai mare ieftinire in termeni reali a caselor dintre statele UE, pe 2019
- Marjele de dobanda practicate de banci sunt in scadere (analiza a Bancii Transilvania)
- Cat este salariul minim pe economie in 2020: 1346 lei net si 2.230 lei brut
- Incluziunea financiara a Romaniei, cea mai mica din Europa, scade, in loc sa creasca
- ROBOR la 3 luni a scazut cu aproape un punct, dupa masurile luate de BNR; cu cat se reduce rata la credite?
- In ce mall din sectorul 4 pot face o simulare pentru o refinantare?
- Programul IMM Invest continua si in 2021
- Garantiile de stat pentru credite acordate de FNGCIMM au crescut cu 185% in 2020
- Programul IMM invest se prelungeste pana in 30 iunie 2021
- Firmele pot obtine credite bancare garantate si subventionate de stat, pe baza facturilor (factoring), prin programul IMM Factor
- Programul IMM Leasing va fi operational in perioada urmatoare, anunta FNGCIMM
- BCE recomanda bancilor sa nu plateasca dividende
- Modul de functionare a relaxarii cantitative (quantitative easing – QE)
- Dobanda la euro nu va creste pana in iunie 2020
- BCE trebuie sa fie consultata inainte de adoptarea de legi care afecteaza bancile nationale
- BCE a publicat avizul privind taxa bancara
- Bancile romanesti detin cele mai multe titluri de stat din Europa
- Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria on loan repayments applied in the light of the COVID-19 crisis
- The EBA reactivates its Guidelines on legislative and non-legislative moratoria
- EBA publishes 2018 EU-wide stress test results
- EBA launches 2018 EU-wide transparency exercise
- Depozitele bancare garantate de FGDB au crescut cu 13 miliarde lei
- Depozitele bancare garantate de FGDB reprezinta doua treimi din totalul depozitelor din bancile romanesti
- Peste 80% din depozitele bancare sunt garantate
- Depozitele bancare nu intra in campania electorala
- FGDB explica modul de aplicare a procedurii de recapitalizare interna a unei banci cu depozitele negarantate ale clientilor (bail-in)
- Cei care nu-si pot plati ratele amanate la credite pot apela la CSALB
- Negocierea in cadrul CSALB ar putea fi obligatorie inaintea proceselor dintre banci si clienti
- CSALB a reusit sa rezolve 433 de litigii dintre banci si clienti, insa in 51 de cazuri negocierile au esuat: exemple si recomandari
- Centrul unde romanii negociaza cu bancile și IFN-urile implinește 5 ani de la infiintare
- Cate reclamatii primeste Provident de la clienti si cum se solutioneaza
- First Bank are o noua aplicatie de mobile banking
- Cetatenii americani din Romania pot incasa cecurile de asistenta financiara pentru COVID-19 doar la First Bank
- First Bank finalizeaza achizitia Bank Leumi Romania
- FMI: criza COVID-19 se transforma in criza economica si financiara in 2020, suntem pregatiti cu 1 trilion (o mie de miliarde) de dolari, pentru a ajuta tarile in dificultate; prioritatea sunt ajutoarele financiare pentru familiile si firmele vulnerabile
- FMI cere BNR sa intareasca politica monetara iar Guvernului sa modifice legea pensiilor
- FMI: majorarea salariilor din sectorul public si legea pensiilor ar trebui reevaluate
- IMF statement of the 2018 Article IV Mission to Romania
- Jaewoo Lee, new IMF mission chief for Romania and Bulgaria
- BERD este ingrijorata de investigatia autoritatilor din Republica Moldova la Victoria Bank, subsidiara Bancii Transilvania
- BERD dezvaluie cat a platit pe actiunile Piraeus Bank
- ING Bank si BERD finanteaza parcul logistic CTPark Bucharest
- EBRD hails Moldova banking breakthrough
- Banca Transilvania and EBRD become majority shareholders of Victoriabank in Moldova
- Federal Reserve anunta noi masuri extinse pentru combaterea crizei COVID-19, care produce pagube "imense" in Statele Unite si in lume
- Federal Reserve urca dobanda la 2,25%
- Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent
- Federal Reserve majoreaza dobanda de referinta pentru dolar la 1,5% - 1,75%
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- BEI a redus cu 31% sprijinul acordat Romaniei in 2018
- Romania implements SME Initiative: EUR 580 m for Romanian businesses
- European Investment Bank (EIB) is lending EUR 20 million to Agricover Credit IFN
- Recomandari de securitate ale BRD pentru utilizatorii de internet/mobile banking
- CEC Bank - Ghid utilizare token sub forma de card bancar
- Cinci banci permit platile cu telefonul mobil prin Google Pay
- Atacuri phishing impotriva clientilor a trei banci, depistate de CERT-RO
- Alpha Bank: precizari despre tentativele de real-time phishing
- State aid: Commission refers Romania to Court for failure to recover illegal aid worth up to €92 million
- Comisia Europeana publica raportul privind progresele inregistrate de Romania in cadrul mecanismului de cooperare si de verificare (MCV)
- Infringements: Commission refers Greece, Ireland and Romania to the Court of Justice for not implementing anti-money laundering rules
- Council of the European Union statement on Bulgaria path towards ERM II participation
- Romania, pe ultimul loc in Europa la digitalizare
- Banca Transilvania plateste un dividend brut pe actiune de 0,17 lei din profitul pe 2018
- Obligatiunile Bancii Transilvania se tranzactioneaza la Bursa de Valori Bucuresti
- Obligatiunile Good Pople SA (FRU21) au debutat pe piata AeRO
- BVB avertizeaza doua firme ca nu si-au respectat obligatiile de raportare
- Raiffeisen Centrobank (RCB) a lansat produse de investitii tip warrant la BVB
- PIB 2020, recalculat cu 1,7 miliarde lei in plus. Scaderea economiei in termeni reali, pastrată la 3,9%
- Comertul cu amanuntul, pe minus in termeni ajustati sezonier in februarie 2021
- Preturile produselor industriale, majorate brusc in februarie 2021
- Costul cu forta de munca, majorat in pandemie cu 8,69%
- PIB-ul Romaniei a scazut cu 3,9% in 2020, declin atenuat de IT si constructii
- Regulile privind incheierea asigurarii auto RCA online
- Ce este o polita de asigurare auto obligatorie RCA
- Politica de prelucrare a datelor cu caracter personal Pint.ro Broker de Asigurare SRL
- Probleme la platile online cu cardurile ING (actualizat)
- Cum se amana ratele la creditele ING, conform OUG 227/2020
- ING a blocat alocatia copilului. Ce trebuie sa fac?
- ING Bank are noi reguli pentru limitele de depunere si retragere numerar cu cardul de la ATM-uri
- Cum se actualizeaza datele personale ale clientilor ING Bank persoane fizice si persoane juridice
Rugăminte deblocare cont
Nu știu de ce sa blocat contul, va rog sa-l ... detalii
Executie credit ipotecar.
Am un credit ipotecar din 2007 Am fost bun platnic pana in momentul crizei cu covid cand am ramas ... detalii
Nu fucționeaza George
Sunt f nemulțumită de aceasta aplicație George care deseori nu mi se deschide ca acum. Am apelat ... detalii
Nu fucționeaza George
Sunt f nemulțumită de aceasta aplicație George care deseori nu mi se deschide ca acum. Am apelat ... detalii
Bună ziua. Sint o persoană cu handicap de gradul 1 grav, si in anul 2017 am luat de la credius o suma de 2700 lei am platit prima luna dupa care nu am mai reusit, inbolnavinduse tata socru de cancer. Tot in anul 2017 am primit acasa executare silita daca nu achit suma de 12000 lei. Ce as putea face in acest caz. Mentionez k nu am mai dat nici un ban. Multumesc
Bună ziua. Ma numrsc Dobrean Florin-Ciprian, sin o persoana cu handicap de gradul 1 grav. In anul ... detalii